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Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29628/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T07:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Simulation result for bulk measurement of CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z only.

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29636/1
Model Inputs:
2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=10.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=325.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-03-17T14:35Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-21T07:11Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =19.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.8
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-18T23:19Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-21T02:18Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_143500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 80.88 hour(s)
Difference: -5.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-03-17T16:57Z

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